SAG nominees

Charting the Course: SAG Awards Predictions

12-years-a-slaveTonight, the island is within sight, and the anchor begins its descent.

The Screen Actors Guild will this evening chart the course of awards season with its 20th set of award winners. With three films leading an awards discussion without definitive direction, the SAG has the power to shift the tide in favor of one.

While a small nominating committee (of around 2,000) tosses contenders into the ring, the entire SAG base of 120,000 (the largest of any industry guild) votes on winners. This means that the film/performances with the most general appeal will win. This
means that tonight there are three possible outcomes:

1) The SAG can go with the tide of the season, choose American Hustle for ensemble and Supporting Actress, placing the film essentially on a platter for the pundits to pick apart, allowing Gravity or 12 Years a Slave to swoop into the lead

2) The SAG can go with the tide of the season, choose American Hustle for ensemble and Supporting Actress, making the film indestructible, allowing it to plow through the DGA and PGA on to the Oscars

or

3) The SAG can shift momentum toward 12 Years a Slave with ensemble, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress wins

If American Hustle–undoubtedly the film with the most general appeal–sweeps with the SAG, the momentum will likely continue with the DGA and PGA, all the way to the Oscars. It’s already enduring an onslaught of backlash, not for the quality of the film, but because–yet again–in the minds of Oscar pundits, the general consensus gravitates more toward pure entertainment value than foreseeable longevity, cinematic value, and historical significance.

12 Years a Slave is an important film in an important year for diversity within the industry. The Academy welcomed its first black female president, and three black filmmakers all put forth massive efforts that won over audiences (Lee Daniels’ The Butler grossed nearly $150 million worldwide) and critics (Fruitvale Station brought Ryan Coogler recognition from the Film Independent Spirit Awards to the various critics circles around the country) alike.

When 12 Years a Slave was making the festival circuit, it seemed nearly unstoppable. I’m not sure “divisive” is even the proper word to use to describe its appeal, because there are people who completely refuse to watch it in the first place. It’s a disservice to the history of the country and to the brilliant filmmakers behind the film to shun it based on personal discomfort with the subject material, and the film would fit nicely within the shifting narrative of our nation’s political and social landscape. Art and society often compliment each other, and in a year that was so huge for the minority voice in the arts, 12 Years a Slave is a fitting film to represent the year.

It’s an unfortunate fact that the Academy is rarely on the side of history, and often overlooks films with the potential to embed themselves as historically significant.

Once a film becomes the Best Picture “frontrunner,” it’s dead in so many ways. It becomes the “it-girl” of awards season and, when it wins, becomes throwaway. It becomes the film everyone has seen and the film everyone is expected to love. It fails to carry significant dramatic weight, as its status as the golden film of the year precedes the content of the picture. It’s happened for the past three calendar years (The King’s Speech, The Artist, Argo, and now American Hustle) are all universally-appealing, adequate, entertaining slices of quality filmmaking that represent our quick-fix culture’s taste. They’re films that make us happy in the moment, but don’t ask much of us at all in terms of intellectual engagement.

The backlash is instant, or slowly seeps into the film’s identity over a slow period of time, and the very same hype machine that took 12 Years a Slave from end-all frontrunner to the underdog is now already heating up to take American Hustle down.

Some have labeled American Hustle’s female characters as throwaway, forgettable, and poorly fleshed-out. They might pale in comparison to the women Russell’s earlier work, but these characters (and the women playing them) are some of the most buzzed about topics about the current awards race. They’re sexualized and flaunted, but they’re also charismatic and appealing because of the enormous talent bringing them to life. Jennifer Lawrence is arguably the biggest star on the planet. She helmed the first female-driven film (Catching Fire) to top the domestic box-office since 1997 earlier last year, and has earned Oscar recognition three times in the past four years (two nominations, one win). To reduce her work in American Hustle (and the recognition she’s getting for it) to the appeal of her sexuality is demeaning to Lawrence’s star as a whole. It’s just a shame that her performance pales in comparison to her fellow nominess (both with the SAG and the Oscars).

jennifer-lawrence-first-american-hustleThe whole detractor “old white male Academy members are voting with their dicks” theory surrounding American Hustle‘s popularity holds up to a certain extent, but it can’t be cast over the entirety of the film. Porn is now more accessible than ever. It’s free and only a few mouse clicks away. I hardly think that you can attribute an old white male’s sexual attraction to the idea of Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams to the film’s scope of appeal. Academy members aren’t using American Hustle as a source of sexual pleasure. It’s an exciting, showy period picture that’s sleek, flashy, and allows them to leave the theater with no weight on their shoulders. It’s not particularly challenging, and doesn’t exactly say a whole lot, nor is it about much at all. At its core, the film is pure escapist porn, and that’s what a general audience is going to gravitate toward.

The only Oscar frontrunner at a complete disadvantage here is Gravity, as the SAG obviously focuses solely on actors. Though Sandra Bullock does appear in the Lead Actress category here, the film never had a shot in any other category, as the only other actor physically present in the film (George Clooney), is a miniscule part of the overall product.

What Gravity loses here is pure visibility, and that’s a shame because this is a film that’s relied largely on its spectacular presence. Though Bullock last week snagged an award for the film at the People’s Choice Awards, she’s had little traction with awards season voters at any other major Oscar precursor. Her appeal, too, is largely based on her endearing persona and ability to captivate a crowd. The SAG nominated her, which is huge, though the award is Cate Blanchett’s to lose.

In terms of the big picture, however, lets not forget that the SAG can deviate largely from the Best Picture narrative. Just two years ago, they awarded The Help’s ensemble with top honors, and Inglourious Basterds took the same award just two years prior. The SAGs voters are inclined to vote for, again, the films, performances, and stars from the most general appeal, and that’s something 12 Years a Slave simply doesn’t have. It’s great for the impending Best Picture Oscar winner when its cast lines up with the ideals of the SAG’s 120,000-strong voting base, but it doesn’t always mean that an ensemble award here indicates Oscar glory further down the road.

Oscar voters still have time to mull their decision, though the 2013 awards season map needs an X, and it’s on the SAG to plot its coordinates.

Full Predictions:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: American Hustle
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture: Lone Survivor

Screen Actors Guild Announces 20th Awards Nominations

20th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Announcement

No Redford. No Larson. No Exarchopoulos.

It’s a little early to stick a fork in these contenders, though lacking a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild–the largest and one of the most influential on the Academy–heading into the thick of the race doesn’t bode well for their Oscar prospects.

As I predicted, The Butler received multiple nominations (Cast, Actor, Supporting Actress), and emerges as a serious contender in the Best Picture race. This is a clear case of reviews having less and less to do with how the industry votes, as box-office, colleague loyalty, and scope of influence (the film is a true ensemble starring Oprah Winfrey, John Cusack, Jane Fonda, Terrence Howard, Mariah Carey, Robin Williams, etc.) trump the sway of the critical voice.

A few other surprises here and there (Dallas Buyers Club for Cast, Daniel Bruhl for Rush) won’t shift the race much, though it will be interesting to see how Redford’s exclusion from the Best Actor category will affect his Oscar chances. To his credit, the race is monumentally crowded in his category this year, though he’s an industry veteran many had placed at the top of the list of 6-7 locks as a surefire bet for the major precursors.

Perhaps this is a case of the SAG nominating committee assuming the frontrunner will receive enough votes anyway, and voting for others to push them through (such as Hanks, whom I believe took Redford’s spot here).

Stay tuned, as tomorrow’s Hollywood Foreign Press Association announcement will likely put the spotlight back on Redford.

The SAG Awards airs January 18th at 8 PM (EST) on TNT

Nominees: 

Cast: 

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
The Butler

Actress:

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Actor:

Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker – The Butler

Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – The Butler

Tomorrow – What to Expect from the Screen Actors Guild

SAG
If we’re judging the race thus far by say of the critics circles, Her, Spike Jonze’s fourth feature film, emerges as the clear underdog-that-could. Though the New York Film Critics Circle shied away from recognizing it in major categories, the Los Angeles Film Critics and the National Board of Review named it their top film of the year.

Gravity also regained its footing in the race, snagging attention amid the slew of announcements this past week from the likes of the Online Film Critics Society, and circles from St. Louis, San Diego, Detroit, and Washington D.C.

Now that a few of the visible critics circles have nominated, it’s time for the major players to step into the game.

Tomorrow, the first major guild announces its nominees, and if there’s one group with a hefty influence over Academy members (largely due to heavy crossover membership), it’s the Screen Actors Guild.

Of the past 10 calendar years, SAG has awarded its top ensemble honor (the stand-in for a Best Film award) to the eventual Best Picture winner 6 times. Of the four major acting categories, the Oscar winner has been present in the SAG nomination categories 100% of the time, with the SAG-to-Oscar winner ratio playing out as follows:

SAGChart

Green = Oscar Nominee

The SAG Awards are an influential Oscar precursor, though they still seem to be in their adolescent phase as a young guild. They’ve got a hard time carving out an identity for themselves, as crossover membership into the Academy is large. SAG has the largest voting base of any Oscar pre-cursor (over 165,000), only a few thousand of which are on the nomination committee (I believe it’s around 2,000). All members are allowed to vote on winners, which usually tends to result in safe choices.

On the surface, you’d think that actors–of all industry members–would be the most willing to recognize names existing “outside” the traditional race each calendar year, but they prove to be a major Oscar litmus test time and time again. Though we consistently push for the Academy to diversify its ranks, the SAG represents a huge portion of the industry and, in turn, a more dynamic voice. If the Screen Actors Guild seeks its own identity, a real wrench could be thrown into the race if they elected to announce nominations first (imagine the reverberations felt from the Film Independent Spirit nominations to the critics circles). The NYFCC’s decision to announce their awards earlier than the other circles this year may have an impact on SAG nominations, as American Hustle had found surprising footing with the circle as SAG nomination ballots were still out (in fact, the deadline was just yesterday).

If there ever were a year for the SAG to go rogue, however, 2013 would be it. The awards race is still young, though there seems to be an expansion of possibilities versus huddling around potential winners as each precursor announces their nominations and/or wins.

The critics have proven that expectations are a dangerous thing to harbor this year, as early momentum tipped in the favor of American Hustle thanks to the NYFCC, though latter buzz settled on the likes of Gravity12 Years a Slave, and Her, though Steve McQueen’s sophomore film has yet to see forge its expected clear path to victory. This is where Gravity will struggle, though, as its cast consists of two people, though Bullock will surely receive a nomination (she’s an industry savior, a woman who can drive box-office by name alone).

So, the potential for biggest surprises tomorrow? What we won’t see nominated versus what we will see. Since the acting categories are so crowded this year (at least 5-6 “locks” in each), it’ll be entirely unsurprising to see big names knocked out of the race in favor of those on the outskirts of the race. Brie Larson or Adele Exarchopoulos instead of Emma Thompson or Meryl Streep (actors don’t take kindly to their own being mistreated, and Adele’s potential nomination could come as a compensatory nod for the disturbing reports surrounding the production of Blue is the Warmest Color) is an entirely possible scenario, as is Forest Whitaker taking the place of any of the current leading men.

THE BUTLER
Tomorrow morning, if we go by statistics, we’ll hear the name of our eventual Oscar winner read aloud as one of the nominees, though we’ll also likely see films like Nebraska and The Butler get a much-needed shove into the ring.

SAG has a soft passion for Alexander Payne’s films (Sideways won the Ensemble award, About Schmidt received multiple nomiations, as did The Descendants), and Nebraska will be no exception. This is Will Forte’s chance to break through an already-crowded category, and Bruce Dern’s to add more high-profile recognition after his win at Cannes.

The scope of The Butler‘s underestimated reach into the industry could be felt immensely tomorrow, as the film is a true ensemble starring major Hollywood players with lengthy roots and loyal connections (Jane Fonda, Oprah Winfrey, John Cusack, Robin Williams) strong enough to push it into at least two major categories. Recognition for Best Ensemble, Actor, and Supporting Actress absolutely aren’t out of the question.

Is this year’s diversity of recognition fallout from last year’s Academy balloting date changes (circles and guilds trying to compensate and maintain relevance), or is the vast openness of the race merely indicative of a great year for film with so many choices that critics and guilds can’t come to a consensus? Are we actually witnessing a growing appreciation for individual opinion and a separation from the traditional “flow” of Oscar Season, where the Academy is looking less to the typical precursors to do the work for them?

Check back here for a live update of the SAG nominees as they’re announced tomorrow morning at 9:00 AM EST (6:00 AM PST) on TNT.

Who needs SAG recognition to remain a powerful contender:

Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Will Forte – Nebraska
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix – Her
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
Kate Winslet – Labor Day
Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
Margo Martindale – August: Osage County

Predictions:

SAGPredix