No Redford. No Larson. No Exarchopoulos.
It’s a little early to stick a fork in these contenders, though lacking a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild–the largest and one of the most influential on the Academy–heading into the thick of the race doesn’t bode well for their Oscar prospects.
As I predicted, The Butler received multiple nominations (Cast, Actor, Supporting Actress), and emerges as a serious contender in the Best Picture race. This is a clear case of reviews having less and less to do with how the industry votes, as box-office, colleague loyalty, and scope of influence (the film is a true ensemble starring Oprah Winfrey, John Cusack, Jane Fonda, Terrence Howard, Mariah Carey, Robin Williams, etc.) trump the sway of the critical voice.
A few other surprises here and there (Dallas Buyers Club for Cast, Daniel Bruhl for Rush) won’t shift the race much, though it will be interesting to see how Redford’s exclusion from the Best Actor category will affect his Oscar chances. To his credit, the race is monumentally crowded in his category this year, though he’s an industry veteran many had placed at the top of the list of 6-7 locks as a surefire bet for the major precursors.
Perhaps this is a case of the SAG nominating committee assuming the frontrunner will receive enough votes anyway, and voting for others to push them through (such as Hanks, whom I believe took Redford’s spot here).
Stay tuned, as tomorrow’s Hollywood Foreign Press Association announcement will likely put the spotlight back on Redford.
The SAG Awards airs January 18th at 8 PM (EST) on TNT
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker – The Butler
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – The Butler